From Ace Of Spades HQ: But I will differ in their count because I believe Kucinich to be a definite YES vote. Something happened in the recent POTUS visit to his state that turned him. That leaves Pelosi 23 "maybes" away.
No Pretty Much Means No:
These were twenty-one "No" Democrats in November who still make noises that sound like "no". Nancy is trying to get a few of these to change their votes and the President is prepared now to offer bribes like the Louisiana Purchase. This group goes in the Definitely Not, Not No Way, Not No How category, having already announced that they will stand by their earlier votes.
John Adler (NJ-3), Dan Boren (OK-2), Bobby Bright (AL-2), Ben Chandler (KY-6), Artur Davis (AL-7), Chet Edwards (TX-17), Tim Holden (PA-17), Larry Kissell (NC-8 ), Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Frank Kratovil (MD-1), Jim Marshall (GA-8 ), Mike McIntyre (NC-7), Mike McMahon (NY-13), Charlie Melancon (LA-3), Walt Minnick (ID-1), Collin Peterson (MN-7), Mike Ross (AR-7), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-All) Heath Shuler (NC-11), Ike Skelton (MO-4), Gene Taylor (MS-4).
Wont Vote For A Bill That Kills Babies:
Then there's the Stupak Dozen. These are "yes" votes in November that are now "no" votes. The confirmed members are: Bart Stupak (MI-1), Marion Berry (AR-1), Joe Cao (LA-2, Republican), Jerry Costello (IL-12), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3), Joe Donnelly (IN-2), Steve Driehaus (OH-1), Brad Ellsworth (IN-8 ), Dan Lipinski (IL-3), Tom Perriello (VA-5). The conjectured final members include Henry Cuellar (TX-28 ), Marcy Kaptur (OH-9).
It's An Election Year:
Then there's the other "yes" votes who have publicly switched: Mike Arcuri (NY-24), Chris Carney (PA-10), and Luis Guterrez (IL-4). I wouldn't count on Gutierrez to stand by his "no" threat, though. He looks like he's trying to wring some concessions out of the leadership on the proposed comprehensive immigration piece of shit. Carney is a lock; he wants to get re-elected. Arcuri sounded pretty sure of himself, but we'll see.
That leaves the maybes. There are ten who voted "yes" the first time, but have refused to commit to voting the same way this time:
Tim Bishop (NY-1), Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8 ), Baron Hill (IN-9), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), Alan Mollohan (WV-1), Solomon Ortiz (TX-27), Bill Owens (NY-23), Earl Pomeroy (ND-All), Nick Rahall (WV-3), Zack Space (OH-18 ).
And there are sixteen who voted "no" the first time who could be victims of Rahm-in-the-lockerroom-with-the-lead-pipe bullying or Cornhusker Compromise bribery because they haven't declared yet what they plan to do:
Jason Altmire (PA-4), Brian Baird (WA-3), John Barrow (GA-12), John Boccieri (OH-16), Rick Boucher (VA-9), Allen Boyd (FL-2), Travis Childers (MS-1), Lincoln Davis (TN-4), Dennis Kucinich (OH-10), Bart Gordon (TN-6), Betsy Markey (CO-4), Jim Matheson (UT-2), Scott Murphy (NY-20), Glenn Nye (VA-2), John Tanner (TN-8 ), Harry Teague (NM-2).
So Pelosi needs 24 out of 26 maybes to break her way.