Thursday, April 22, 2010

Senate Update From The Peoples Republic of Californistan

As you know, Mr. Obama was recently here in LaLa Land trying to shore up the dwindling re-election hopes of Madame Barbara Boxer, the Junior Senator from The Peoples Republic of Californistan. 

Fortunately for us in California, Mr. Obama is 0 for 3 in his designated at-bats. He appeared for statewide Democratic candidates in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts last year, and all three lost. But events here in California do reflect an elevated level of effort by the White House as Dems across the country find themselves vulnerable to replacement in November's midterm elections.

Mr. Obaba was quoted here in L.A. as saying "We've got a lot more work to do. Our work is not yet done. And because some of the things that we did were not popular, we're going to have a tough political fight coming up," Mr. Obama said at the first fundraising reception Monday. "Barbara is going to have a tough race."
Unpopular you say?  Just a slight understatement.  And with regard to Madame Boxer’s race, tough doesn’t tell the entire story.  For her, it’s downright terrifying.
Boxer is not enjoying the lockstep following of traditional California Fiberals from years past.  Here approval level is around 38%, and has fallen 5-7 points in the past 30 days alone.  She is feeling pressure not just from Republicans and the Tea Party faithful, but from radical and quasi-radical groups from which she has enjoyed support in the past.  GLBT groups such as GLADD and the newer GetEQUAL are pinging her hard on “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell”.  She has not one but three viable Republican and Conservative candidates – two of which are polling at or above her support levels.  And unlike past years, two of these candidates (Carly Fiorina and Tom Campbell) have both money and clout.
Madame Boxer, who waxed the Republican challenger in 2004 by a 20 point margin (58 percent to 38 percent) has become the poster child for threatened Dems across the country.  And with as many as 10 Dem Senate seats in play, Boxer (one of Mr. Obamas most Progressive supporters) is a battle he wants to win so badly he can taste it.
From John Zogby: "Barbara Boxer's polling numbers are not good. She is consistently polling in the mid-40s against potential Republican opponents and generally a few points down against each. For someone so well-known, the fact that she is well under 50 in two-person races is troublesome. Also problematic for her is that there is very little room for her to grow. She is known and polarizing,"
Again understated.
Rasmussen Reports in their latest poll puts Mrs. Boxer's lead within the margin of error at just four percentage points. Scott Rasmussen said this past Monday that “At this stage of the campaign, any incumbent who earns less than 50% of the vote is considered vulnerable. Boxer is in more trouble than at any point in her career."   

According to Rasmussen the current state of the race looks like this:
Candidate                                   %                 
Boxer vs. Campbell                 43-41                  
Boxer vs. Fiorina                     43-42
Boxer vs. Devore                     38-39
Prefer another candidate            10
Undecided                                    6

What could be worse for Boxer?  In her case, there is nowhere to go but down.  She is so well known that most people feel there is nothing left to learn about her – nothing to sway opinion.  This is why the undecided percentages are so low – statistically negligible.  And also explains why she has been trending steadily down for the past few months.
But the real question here in California is:  Who to vote for? 
Ideologically, Chuck Devore might be the most conservative choice, but himself trending downward due to money problems and a base which isolates him from mainstream GOP voters.  Tom Campbell started his career as an ideologue, but has trended closer to the RINO camp as he has aged and fought re-election campaigns in a generally Progressive state. Fiorina has her own baggage – she was not popular at HP, and questions about her involvement with corporate espionage and blacktops against her own management team are legitimate concerns.  She is also the most socially moderate of the candidates with no real political experience.
But here’s the kicker: Fiorina is the candidate most feel has the best chance of de-throning Boxer. Will she have enough for ideological Conservatives and Tea Party faithful to embrace her instead of re-electing Boxer? Will the Cali "Non-Dem" voter bloc be willing to swallow a bit of principal and pride to support a socially moderate candidate – if that candidate is the only real choice? Will California GOP and Conservative voters “throw the baby out with the bathwater” if they don’t get the candidate of their choice?  This scenario will be played out across the nation this November. Conservatives and Republicans need to now grasp the reality we face here in California: 
The best candidate may not be electable, but DO elect the best NON-INCUMBANT candidate. 
Californians need to be ready to change the balance of power in Congress, and later for the White House.  Other states will also need to prepare for this eventuality.  It is important, nay, imperative to remove the Socialists from office - even if the offered GOP/Conservative candidate is not perfect in our eyes.  To me, that's just being pragmatic.

And since you asked, I will continue to root for the most ideological candidate - to me, that's Chuck Devore.  I will also fully offer my support to the winner of the Republican Primary.  Hope and Change, meaning the end of Boxer's term in office, is something I will vote for.  Even if it happen to mean a vote for Carly.
This is just one man’s opinion – YMMV.  Your comments are invited and appreciated.

No comments:

Post a Comment